Two Cities Marathon's Fade Problem Is Getting Worse as the Field Grows

Fresno's Two Cities Marathon has expanded from 481 finishers in 2023 to 716 in 2025, yet the course's core challenge has barely changed: more than 86% of the field ran positive splits in the most recent edition, with the median runner slowing by 15.5% in the second half. Flat on paper, this race has a late-mile sting that the data makes impossible to ignore.

By the numbers

Three years of data show steady, significant growth. The field jumped from 481 finishers in 2023 to 550 in 2024 and 716 in 2025 — a 49% increase across that span. Women's participation has grown proportionally, from 149 to 160 to 210 finishers. Despite the larger and more diverse field, the overall median finish time has actually tightened slightly, moving from 4:25:01 in 2023 to 4:19:48 in 2024 and 4:21:14 in 2025. The men's median followed a similar arc (4:15:56 → 4:07:24 → 4:11:30), while the women's median has held in a narrow band between 4:44:59 and 4:48:27 across all three editions.

Where the course bites

The 2025 fade curve tells a precise story. The field opens at 8:49/mi through mile 1, settles to 8:59/mi by the 10K, and is already at 9:17/mi by the half. That gradual drift becomes a wall. By mile 18, the median segment pace has slipped to 9:45/mi, a figure that holds flat through mile 19.8 before the course delivers its sharpest blow.

The segment ending at mile 25.2 clocks 12:35/mi — the single ugliest number in the dataset. The modest recovery to 10:09/mi over the final mile reflects a small re-acceleration, but the damage is already done. The elevation profile offers context: the back half of the course trends slightly upward, with the final two kilometers alone climbing 12 feet.

Pacing reality check

Positive-split rates were 88% in 2024 and 86% in 2025, with only 34 and 66 runners, respectively, running negative splits in those years. The average second-half slowdown was essentially identical: 15.4% in 2024 and 15.5% in 2025. The consistency of that figure across two very different weather days suggests the course itself — not just conditions — is the primary driver of late-race deterioration.

The weather question

The 2023 edition ran in 36–46°F with calm winds and 76% humidity — by far the coldest conditions in the dataset, and the year that produced the fastest men's winning time (2:11:34). The 2024 and 2025 races both ran in the low-to-mid 60s at the gun, warming into the low 70s, with light winds and moderate humidity. The 2026 forecast — 67–77°F, haze, wind ~3 mph, 58% humidity — closely mirrors 2025's conditions (64–74°F, 53% humidity). Based on the prior two warm editions, runners should expect the field's pace to follow the same arc: comfortable through the half, progressively difficult from mile 18 onward.

What it takes

The top 10% cutoff has ranged from 3:13:01 to 3:16:13 across the three editions, and the top 25% threshold from 3:39:14 to 3:46:44. The 75th percentile sits between 5:00:00 and 5:14:58. Boston qualifier counts were recorded as zero in both 2023 and 2024; no BQ data was reported for 2025.

What to watch

The BQ question is the most conspicuous open thread. Zero qualifiers were recorded in 2023 and 2024 despite a field with a top-10% cutoff comfortably under 3:20. Whether that reflects registration patterns, course certification nuance, or something else, the 2026 edition — with a larger, slightly faster-trending field — will be worth watching on that front. The field's growth trajectory is also notable: if the 49% expansion from 2023 to 2025 continues even modestly, 2026 could push toward 800 finishers. And the late-race collapse between miles 23 and 25.2 remains the defining feature of this race — the question each year is simply how many runners see it coming.