Long Beach Marathon's 29.6% Second-Half Fade Defines a Flat Course That Punishes Optimism
Long Beach bills itself as a flat, fast October marathon — and the opening miles back that up. But 2025's field data tells a harder story: 98% of finishers ran a positive split, with the average runner slowing by nearly 30% in the second half. With a cooler, more humid forecast for 2026, the question isn't whether the course bites, but when.
By the numbers
The 2025 field counted 4,762 finishers, with a field-wide median of 4:40:27. Men finished at a median of 4:32:40; women at 4:58:35. Women made up 1,349 of the finishers — roughly 28% of the field. The top quarter of the field broke 3:57:55, and the top 10% came in under 3:32:55.
Where the course bites
The fade curve from 2025 is stark. Through the first 5.5 miles, the field ran a brisk 9:01/mi median pace. That slipped to 9:29/mi through the half. Then the bottom drops out: the segment from mile 13.1 to mile 20 saw a median pace of 11:55/mi — a deterioration of more than two and a half minutes per mile off the opening tempo. The final 6.2 miles barely changed, clocking in at 11:59/mi, suggesting most runners who fell apart by mile 20 had little left to recover with.
The elevation profile offers a partial explanation: the course is genuinely flat through the first half, but miles 20–35 introduce modest but cumulative rolling — +40 ft, then -36 ft, then +16 ft, then +12 ft — before a final -29 ft drop to the finish. On fresh legs, none of those numbers are alarming. On legs already 20 miles deep, they register.
| Checkpoint | Mile | Field Median Pace |
|---|---|---|
| 5.5M | 5.5 | 9:01/mi |
| Half | 13.1 | 9:29/mi |
| Mile 20 | 20.0 | 11:55/mi |
| Finish | 26.2 | 11:59/mi |
Pacing reality check
Only 35 runners in 2025 — out of 4,762 — ran a negative split. That's less than 1% of the field. The average second-half slowdown of 29.6% is substantial; a runner going through the half at 2:05 is, by that average, finishing closer to 4:44 than 4:10. The 2025 start temperature of 72°F with 73% humidity created conditions that were warm enough to accelerate glycogen depletion and cardiovascular strain in the back half.
The weather question
The 2026 forecast represents a meaningful shift: a start temperature of 61°F — 11 degrees cooler than 2025 — with clear skies and light wind around 5 mph. Humidity, however, rises to 88%, up from 73% in 2025. The cooler air should support faster early pacing and reduce heat stress in the critical miles 18–22, which historically correlates with tighter positive splits. But the elevated humidity could blunt some of that benefit, particularly for runners who go out aggressively in what will feel like ideal conditions through mile 10.
What it takes
The 2025 winning times were 2:26:31 (men) and 2:55:13 (women) — both well clear of the field and well off the course records of 2:13:22 and 2:35:50. The race produced 177 Boston qualifiers, representing 3.7% of finishers. Breaking into the top quarter requires sub-3:58; top 10% demands sub-3:33.
What to watch
The cooler 2026 start could nudge the BQ count above 177 and the 3.7% rate from 2025 — the conditions are meaningfully more favorable through the first half, which is where BQ attempts are typically won or lost. Whether that translates or gets absorbed by the higher humidity will show up most clearly in the mile 13–20 pace segment.
The 29.6% average slowdown is also worth tracking as a field-health metric. If 2026's second-half fade narrows, it would signal that the cooler morning genuinely helped runners hold form deeper into the race — not just run faster early and collapse later.
AI race preview · generated from official results of prior editions